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MBB Game Thread - Pac-12 Tourney: Buffs vs. the D!*k Chards
- Thread starter Scotch
- Start date
Isn't there a foreign player that is already on campus but not technically on the roster? How does he factor in next year?
Alexander Strating. Forward from the Netherlands who is supposed to be a glue guy type. Paid his own way while redshirting this year with an expectation of being a scholarship guy next year. BIO
Thanks that is the one.
We really need to find a transfer guard that can play immediately, either that or hope that Namon Wright is better than he showed in his limited time at Mizzou.
dyemeduke
Well-Known Member
The only additional thing I have to say about next year is that I'd like to see our rotation cut to 8-9 earlier in the season. I didn't watch as many games as I would have liked, but it seems from the boards and what I could catch that guys like Thomas AK were playing late in the season. I'm fine with using non-conference and a few weeks into conf play to figure who you can trust and what rotation to set, but we needed to cut minutes for some players earlier. Unless you have a Kentucky situation where you have SO much talent you have two pods of 5, I'd rather develop chemistry and cohesion with 8-9 players.
Yeah, the hockey style line changes didn't help this year.
I think we need both those things.
Honestly, there are always PGs available from the grad transfer and JUCO ranks and I can't believe that we can't get a guy who would be a big upgrade over Tommy. And we can probably find an upgrade over Dom.
Regarding Namon Wright, that Mizzou program was a dysfunctional mess. Sophomore year saw a shooting slump regression (25 more 3pt attempts with only 3 more makes). But we did see him get dialed in at the charity stripe while raising his assist rate and reducing his turnover rate. And his rebounding was exceptional for a shooting guard. As an offensive player, I think he's kind of like a Bryce Peters. He's a slasher more than a shooter. So his 3pt% needs to be at the "keep them honest" level in that 33-36% range in order to open up the rest of his game. He doesn't need to be Levi Knutson out there.
One thing I am wondering about is whether he has further progressed on the A/TO. Could he end up as the primary ball handler next year? For reference, Derrick White's TORate is a 17.1 (but he has a sick ARate of 28.1). Spencer was more like 20/17. The big thing with that position and what works is whether our PG is able to draw fouls. FTRate is one of the most important factors in winning basketball. Spencer was a sick. 76.7 as a soph and 90.8 as a junior as our PG. Ski (while he had a good ARate / TORate), was only 35.1 on FTRate as a senior PG. Dom was only 34.5 as the main PG last season. White is 44.6 on FTRate. Namon was a 46.7 on FTRate as a soph. Could he take that into the 50s or 60s if he was our primary ball handler -- where you get a bump by drawing a lot of the late game fouls? Because if he could, we're playing TadBall by gaining a big advantage on FTRate each game (when they're right, Tad's teams don't foul on defense and draw a lot of fouls on offense.)
| Namon Wright | ORtg | eFG% | TS% | OR% | DR% | ARate | TORate | FT% | 2pt% | 3pt% |
| Freshman | 89.3 | 49.2 | 49.3 | 1.2 | 11.8 | 8.0 | 19.8 | 50.0 | 42.5 | 36.4 |
| Sophomore | 94.3 | 43.6 | 50.2 | 3.0 | 18.0 | 10.1 | 18.2 | 76.1 | 39.8 | 31.5 |
Could Wright be our PG?
Absolutely. Even teams that are stocked with McD's AAs and 4* Top 100 types at every scholarship spot understand that the chemistry and flow of a basketball team requires a shorter bench. I'd rather see that short bench from the beginning and then see guys rewarded with opportunities for increased minutes based on earning it at practice. Early season, blow teams the **** out and get the bench their minutes when you're up by 30 against Southeastern Sisters of Perpetual Suffering Tech.
I think we need both those things.
Honestly, there are always PGs available from the grad transfer and JUCO ranks and I can't believe that we can't get a guy who would be a big upgrade over Tommy. And we can probably find an upgrade over Dom.
Regarding Namon Wright, that Mizzou program was a dysfunctional mess. Sophomore year saw a shooting slump regression (25 more 3pt attempts with only 3 more makes). But we did see him get dialed in at the charity stripe while raising his assist rate and reducing his turnover rate. And his rebounding was exceptional for a shooting guard. As an offensive player, I think he's kind of like a Bryce Peters. He's a slasher more than a shooter. So his 3pt% needs to be at the "keep them honest" level in that 33-36% range in order to open up the rest of his game. He doesn't need to be Levi Knutson out there.
One thing I am wondering about is whether he has further progressed on the A/TO. Could he end up as the primary ball handler next year? For reference, Derrick White's TORate is a 17.1 (but he has a sick ARate of 28.1). Spencer was more like 20/17. The big thing with that position and what works is whether our PG is able to draw fouls. FTRate is one of the most important factors in winning basketball. Spencer was a sick. 76.7 as a soph and 90.8 as a junior as our PG. Ski (while he had a good ARate / TORate), was only 35.1 on FTRate as a senior PG. Dom was only 34.5 as the main PG last season. White is 44.6 on FTRate. Namon was a 46.7 on FTRate as a soph. Could he take that into the 50s or 60s if he was our primary ball handler -- where you get a bump by drawing a lot of the late game fouls? Because if he could, we're playing TadBall by gaining a big advantage on FTRate each game (when they're right, Tad's teams don't foul on defense and draw a lot of fouls on offense.)
Could Wright be our PG?[TBODY] [/TBODY]
Namon Wright ORtg eFG% TS% OR% DR% ARate TORate FT% 2pt% 3pt% Freshman 89.3 49.2 49.3 1.2 11.8 8.0 19.8 50.0 42.5 36.4 Sophomore 94.3 43.6 50.2 3.0 18.0 10.1 18.2 76.1 39.8 31.5
This is kind of what I am thinking too. Dom would be the PG, but I could see Wright being our primary ball handler ala White this year.
Could the line up be:
Collier
Wright
King
Bey
Miller
That doesn't give me a ton of confidence if I am being honest.
I fully agree with this, but I think Tad's hands were tied a little bit by the bipolar nature of this team. He'd start to give someone minutes and they'd screw it up and he'd have to adjust. I, personally, would have gone to 8 by conference play but I also don't watch practices and I don't have to deal with knuckleheads being knuckleheads and screwing things up. Honestly, rotations are always going to be the thing about Tad that cause us to pull our hair out (those of you that have hair at least). I don't like that he has his assistants handle the substitutions, but I understand why he does it.
Your argument gives me hope, but honestly I think we need someone else to be the primary ball handler over Wright. The hope is that a Wright/Dom backcourt will be just solid enough ball handling wise that we can get away with it. The big fear I have is with the backup units - I have no idea who's going to be handling the ball if both Dom and Wright are off the court. I know in our offense we don't have a need for a real floor general out there, but it's still nice to have the guy who you can depend on when things get tight.
I'm not plugging Miller in to the starting spot yet, but the other 4 are my picks to start pending attrition/additions.
Who else plays the 5? Walton? Battey?
Walton, Battey, Lucas, Miller. I honestly have no confidence in any of them to necessarily do it, but someone's going to have to.
I don't know how you avoid Miller as the starter.
Put Siewert on the Dufault bulk-up program and run with him? Maybe you get enough rebounding there if Peters, Brown or Schwartz is able to replace Dom in the starting lineup with Wright as the primary ball handler? Or we play a lot more of Grier's zone with Walton manning the middle as a rim protector?
Wright
Schwartz
King
Bey
Siewert
Not sure I like that either... Our bigs are going to need to do some serious work between now and November.
aghcsm
Well-Known Member
I'm struck by the significant difference between each year's Buff basketball edition, even we think we know the players. Two years ago we expected a great year and it flopped. Last year expectations were more reserved and we had a solid team. And this year of course...
The difference between a good year and a disappointment is 3-4 games and a few points. With 4 losses this year we could (should) have won, we'd be 23-9 and excited about the upcoming tournament. But the team was slightly deficient in coming through in the clutch. Or failed to build/hold a lead so the last minute or overtime made the difference.
We've got some good players for next year, a good coach, and a fresh start with a whole new team chemistry. How it plays out will be fun to watch.
The difference between a good year and a disappointment is 3-4 games and a few points. With 4 losses this year we could (should) have won, we'd be 23-9 and excited about the upcoming tournament. But the team was slightly deficient in coming through in the clutch. Or failed to build/hold a lead so the last minute or overtime made the difference.
We've got some good players for next year, a good coach, and a fresh start with a whole new team chemistry. How it plays out will be fun to watch.
Yep. Absolutely should have won @ASU, @Washington, @WSU and vs USC. Probably should have held on for the win @BYU. That's 23-9 or 24-8 with some other games like CSU and Utah at home and Cal on the road that could have gone the other way if this team had been right. You're never going to get all of those games, but this team had it in their grasp to be a dangerous tourney team. Furk.
It is an absolute travesty that White will not get to play in the dance.
aghcsm
Well-Known Member
I expect he thought that was likely, and was recruited with the tourney as a selling point.
aghcsm
Well-Known Member
Although I would suggest that CU was a great place for Derrick to showcase his skills. He's not a selfish player so would have scored less if GK and JF were shooting like last year. Also may have played less if others were doing well. Some recent dominant performances (because there was no alternative for the Buffs to have a shot at winning) got NBA attention.
seattlebuff
Well-Known Member
A few people in this thread mentioned hoping Dom would be an all-conference player next year ... almost spit out my coffee. I'm not sure he'd make a DII all-conference team. He fundamentally lacks the explosiveness to create, draw defenders, get to the rim, etc. (all the things White does) and when on rare occasions he actually gets there, he looks timid, almost like he expects his layup to be blocked ... because it usually is. He's turned into a decent spot-up 3pt shooter, but if anyone thinks he's going to turn into some kind of catalyst or creator next year, they're wildly optimistic.
I think the general consensus is we're in decent shape as long as a bunch of small league regular season champs don't lose their conference tournaments and get NIT auto bids. But I haven't gone into the nitty gritty of bid counting.
aghcsm
Well-Known Member
Without investigating details, it seems most mid-major conference champs are also winning their tournaments. I think the Buffs are pretty firmly in the NIT. Our problem in the NIT is that higher seeds get to start out on home court, and we will not be a higher seed. Depending on bracketing, we could wind up playing teams with comparable resumes on their home court, obviously a significant disadvantage for us. Think Syracuse, Illinois, Iowa etc at their place.
So bracketing will be critical to our possible success.
dyemeduke
Well-Known Member
hmm...I think I'm the only one that typed "all conference" with relation to Dom, and what I wrote was that I've given up on him becoming that. When he was a senior in HS, I thought he could develop into that as a junior, and even as a freshman, I thought he had good tools to develop. Now that he's 3 years in, no, I do NOT think he will be an all-conference player. I do hope though for some improvement still, and I think he can and will start. He has decent handles and shot, and shows flashes of D every now and then, primarily off-ball to me though. He has a decent base of skills - not dynamic, but he still can play. But no...I was not saying he was going to be all-conference, but would love to be proven wrong, as we all would.
coereg
Well-Known Member
It's becoming painfully obvious that in order to truly contend with (and beat) the upper-level teams in the Pac-12, one is gonna need to have a healthy stable of good quality big players. Guys 6"10 to 7'0 who can rebound, block shots, and step out and shoot from 10 to 15. You've got to have those caliber players. I understand that Tad likes the long athletic wings, and teaching those guys to hopefully be bulldogs on the boards, but it does no good when the other team is playing a similar guy like that but then two really big guys to boot. AZ had two 6'11 to 7'0 foot guys in almost the entire game last night. Hopefully Siewart and Walton can grow to be good options that will help them in this category. Gotta get big!!
Furthermore, it is time for Tad to finally start recruiting a good group of guards again. The rotation this year past White, minus occasional decent play by Fortune, Peters, and Collier, was pretty dismal.
Furthermore, it is time for Tad to finally start recruiting a good group of guards again. The rotation this year past White, minus occasional decent play by Fortune, Peters, and Collier, was pretty dismal.
Really hard to find those types of bigs, so I understand the approach that programs like Villanova have used. But that approach absolutely requires superior guard play and great shooting.
So if Tad wants to keep recruiting long, athletic forwards, then I'm fine with it as long as part of the strategy is that beyond having guys like King on the wing we also have guards that can fill it up from deep and create for others. Plus, you've got to push pace. It can work. Guys like Rustic and Welsh aren't going to beat you if you have the other stuff going on. But we need to commit to a system. Either be a big, plodding, banging team (like a lot of the Big Ten) or be a pressure & 3pt shooting team that goes small (like Nova, WVU and others).
